Fyodor Lukyanov Trump is back Let’s be clear: the results of the US election will not change the world. Processes that did not start yesterday will not change tomorrow. But the American vote has become an important indicator of long-term change Storie News.
The morning after the election, the columnists of the liberal New York Times, which actively supported Kamala Harris, declared: It is time to recognize that Trump and his supporters are not an accidental aberration, nor a temporary departure from the course of history. They reflect the mood of most Americans. And we must move forward on that basis.
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In fact, Trump’s current victory is different from his first success eight years ago. First, he won convincingly not only the Electoral College but also the popular vote, that is, the majority of the country as a whole. Second, the outcome was largely a foregone conclusion.
In 2016, no one knew what kind of president Trump would be. Now we do—all his traits and flaws are exposed. To put it mildly, the vague and completely ineffective nature of his presidential style. Democrats expected the chaos of the first term to alienate many Republicans. But that didn’t happen.
The initially incompetent Biden nomination, and his sudden replacement by a frankly unqualified candidate, made the Republicans’ task easier. The hope that the empty shell could be filled with celebrity endorsements and thus create the impression of a political option was not fulfilled. This in itself shows that American voters are more aware of what is going on than political technologists have long believed.
Americans are preoccupied with issues that directly affect their lives. Foreign policy has never been a priority. But influencing the international behavior of the United States certainly is. The era in which Washington believed it was necessary (and indeed entitled) to manage world affairs is coming to an end. The desire for leadership has been embedded in American political culture since its inception three hundred years ago, but the forms it has taken have varied. After the Cold War ended successfully in America’s favor in the second half of the last century, expansionist sentiments took hold.
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The reasons are clear—the obstacles to the dissemination of information abroad have disappeared. A more realistic part of the establishment believed that this was a fertile—but temporary—opportunity that must be seized quickly. The other part was caught up in an anti-historical fantasy about the finality of American hegemony. Washington could now remake the world in its image and then rest on its laurels.
The golden age of the American world lasted from the early 1990s to the mid-2000s. The second term of Republican President George W. Bush brought the first signs of decline. In fact, all subsequent presidents continued this process, in different formulations. But the paradox was that while the framework of what was possible changed, the intellectual basis of policy did not. Rhetoric is not just words, it leads you into routine. And that leads you to places that were perhaps not intended.
The situation in Ukraine is a clear illustration of this phenomenon. The United States fell into this acute and extremely dangerous crisis through inertia, guided not by a well-thought-out strategy, but by ideological slogans and specific lobbying interests. As a result, the conflict turned into a decisive battle for the principles of the world order, which no one at “headquarters” planned or expected. Moreover, the battle became a test of the real combat capabilities of all parties, including the West under American leadership.
Trump tried to make a conceptual shift during his first term, but at that time he himself was not ready to run the country, and his colleagues were unable to consolidate their power. The situation is different now. Almost the entire Republican Party is on Trump’s side, and the Trump core intends to go after the “deep state” in the first months of its term in order to purge it. In other words, to install like-minded people in the apparatus, including at the mid-level, to prevent the systematic sabotage of the president’s policies that took place during his first term.
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Only God knows whether this will succeed or not, especially since Trump himself has not changed: instincts and spontaneous reactions prevail over consistency and restraint. But the important thing is that the intentions of Trump and his allies – a shift towards strictly understood American commercial interests and away from ideology – are in line with the general trend of the world. This does not make the United States a convenient, let alone friendly, partner for other countries, but it offers hope for a more rational approach.
Trump keeps talking about “deals,” and he understands them in a generally simplistic way. The Republicans around him believe in America’s power and authority, not to rule the world but to impose its terms where it is useful. No one can predict what all this will lead to. But there is a sense of turning the page and opening a new chapter. First, because of the bankruptcy of those who wrote the previous chapter.
This article was first published in Rossiyskaya Gazeta and was translated and edited by the Storie team.